Saturday, January 30, 2010

创新过程, 化危为机 第三部分-未满足的需要和市场

创新之路必须包括两大要素。其一,解决方案是全新的;其二,能有效解决最终用户的问题。从宏观上看,我们希望找到对企业家的需求尚未得到满足的市场。

全球金融危机提供给了中国一个机遇,成为带动全球经济回稳的主动力。中国庞大的经济刺激计划已经达到了预期的效果。然而,显而易见的是,引发危机的根源仍旧存在于现有的全球经济体系中,解决这些不安定因素,必须让发展重新步上良性轨道。

中国经济必须保持8%的GDP年增长率,且一直依赖出口模式。但美国的过度消费所导致地严重财富创伤使得中国原有的经济模式难以为继。中国与其他相似的经济体一样,将不得不通过拉动国内消费来弥补差距。中国目前国内消费占全国 GDP 总数的35%,而美国同期的这一比重是75%。

中国的出口模式依赖劳动密集型和资源密集型加工产业,因此有其局限性,并且在产业结构平衡、协调性和可持续性等方面存在着问题。在金融危机初期,2,000万中国农民工下岗或面临失业。他们的返乡可能成为政治和经济秩序的不稳定因素,影响巨大.

本着化危为机,中国启动了一揽子经济刺激政策,总投资超过 5,000 亿美元,旨在大力提升国内消费。政策包括有家电下乡、经济适用房补贴、车辆购置税下调等。这些政策不仅保证了工厂的正常运营、工人的就业,也同样提高了人们的生活质量。中国有三大产业,依次分为农业、制造业和服务业,而发展的焦点将集中在提升其制造业的技术水平上。对人们生活质量的提升则从原有的仅着重衣食延伸到了住行。在某种意义上,新生活方式的曙光已经到来。

中国西部开发的预期成长率将达到15%,从而弥补了经济较为成熟的沿海地区及经济特区的低预期成长率。这些举措的成功实施将提高居民生活水平和购买力,并进一步推动中国的贸易流通。与国外机构,尤其是跨国企业的合作将变得频繁,并产生双赢效益。中国对生产力的提升,使得其服务业成为投资的理想市场,资金将被用于职业培训等手段以提高劳动力水平。但由于劳动密集型模式的长期主导地位,使得转型期间的阻力不可避免。勇气领导力是变革和产生绩效的两大关键,只有具备这样的智慧才能战胜既得利益的固有思想局限,带领人民实现改革的愿景.

把握到创新的脉搏了吗?请用心体会……


aknowledgments:

Ms Renee Yi for editing and support to this post.


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Friday, January 29, 2010

Innovation Process Part III - Unmet Needs and Marketplace

Two key ingredients must be satisfied in the innovation process. The solution must be new and solve a problem for the end users. In taking a macro view, we hope to seek out market place where unmet needs await the entrepreneurs.
The global financial crisis provides China the opportunity to be the main locomotive in driving the global economy back to stability. Its massive economic stimulus package had the intended effect. However it is also clear that the root causes remain embedded within the present global economic system and such instability must be resolved for growth to be back on track.

China requires a sustainable growth rate of 8% annually and has relied on the export model. This cannot carry on indefinitely as the US over-spent consumers have severely depleted their wealth. China as well as other economies with similar model, will need to look from within via increase in domestic consumption, presently at 35% of its GDP ( versus US 75% ) to make up for this gap.

The export model leveraging on labour- and resource-intensive processes has its limit and has created issues with regards to structural balances, coordination and sustainability. At the advent of the crisis, 20 millions migrant workers were laid off or facing layoffs. Their return to their villages could potentially destabilize the political and economic order with dire consequences.

Turning the crisis into opportunity, China initiated an economic stimulus package in excess of US$ 500 billion, jump starting the process of increasing domestic consumption. Subsidies were extended to villagers to buy white appliances, affordable housing and tax reliefs for car purchases. These help to keep the factories running and workers gainfully employed, as well as hoisting the standard of living. China’s 3 key sectors i.e.. agricultural, manufacturing and services in that order, will be the focal point in upgrading its manufacturing base technologically. By raising the standard of living, the emphasis has shifted from merely having adequate clothing and food, to providing affordable housing and transportation. In a sense, the new dawn of lifestyle living has arrived.

China in developing its western provinces which in percentage term can grow in the mid-teens thus compensating for the lower growth rate expected for the more matured coastal areas and special economic zones. The successful implementation of these initiatives will raise standard of living and purchasing power, empowering China to facilitate the trade flow further. Collaboration with foreign entities, and in particular MNCs will come naturally and it can be a win-win outcome. As China seeks to raise productivity level, the service sector is a good area to target as funds will be set aside to upgrade the labour force through vocational training and such other means. During the transition, it is not unusual to meet resistance as labour-intensive model has worked so well thus far. Courage and leadership are required for wisdom to prevail over vested interest to bring about change, and for China to fulfill its vision for its people.

Do you smell opportunity for innovation? Go figure ...




Clues: zero carbon emission, food shortages, standard of living

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